Author(s): Giulio Riga, Paolo Balocchi
A strong earthquake is always preceded by groupings of shocks whose identification and understanding constitute a sound method for improving short-term earthquake forecasts. Thanks to a graphical method, we have identified and classified some microsequences and reversed phase repetitive patterns that precede the hazardous events. The seismic microsequences include a series of information useful to know in advance the beginning of energy release and accumulation phases that usually precede and follow a moderate-to-high magnitude earthquake. Their identification and correct interpretation allow us to determine various warning signals. In particular, through the analysis of their shape and position in the seismic sequence we can claim that the strongest earthquakes occur shortly after the formation of some peculiar micro-sequences. The checks carried out on large data sets related to earthquakes occurred in the past have shown that the analysis procedures developed do not depend on the size of the area analyzed while predicting a high percentage of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes.
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