Contributing Factors for Train Delays during Morning Rush Hour in Japanese Metropolitan Areas

Authors: Keigo Ohshima, Kayoko Yamamoto

The present study aims to reveal the contributing factors for train delays in Tokyo metropolitan area by conducting statistical analyses, focusing on passenger trains, and using a variety of information by including data concerning train cars, stations, passengers, tracks and working timetables as explanatory variables. The present study conducted 2 types of statistical analyses including the standard multiple regression analysis and the logistic regression analysis by setting “average delay time” which indicates the quantitative conditions of delays, and “occurrence of delays” which indicates the qualitative condition, as objective variables. According to the results of the logistic regression analysis, the possibility of direct operations increasing the delay occurrence rate was quantitatively indicated. Therefore, direct operations are regarded as a contributing factor for train delays concerning metropolitan areas in recent years. Additionally, it was confirmed that the concentration of demand on terminal stations is also a contributing factor for train delays. On the other hand, it is certain that direct operations contribute to improving the convenience of passengers as well as the operational efficiency of train cars. Therefore, it would be ideal to resolve delays by easing the concentration of demands which may be accomplished by recommending off-peak commuting as well as adjustments to the working timetables.


Journal: Journal of Transportation Technologies
DOI: 10.4236/jtts.2020.102010 (PDF)
Paper Id: 99077 (metadata)

See also: Comments to Paper

About scirp

(SCIRP: is an academic publisher of open access journals. It also publishes academic books and conference proceedings. SCIRP currently has more than 200 open access journals in the areas of science, technology and medicine. Readers can download papers for free and enjoy reuse rights based on a Creative Commons license. Authors hold copyright with no restrictions. SCIRP calculates different metrics on article and journal level. Citations of published papers are shown based on Google Scholar and CrossRef. Most of our journals have been indexed by several world class databases. All papers are archived by PORTICO to guarantee their availability for centuries to come.
This entry was posted in JTTs. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *