A Basic Study of the Forecast of Air Transportation Networks Using Different Forecasting Methods

Authors: Yuya Takahashi, Rie Osawa, Susumu Shirayama

ABSTRACT
This research applies network structuring theories to the aviation domain and predicts aviation network growth, considering a flight connection between airports as a link between nodes. Our link prediction approach is based on network structure information, and to improve prediction accuracy, it is necessary to estimate the mechanism of aviation network growth. This research critically evaluates the prediction accuracy of two methods: the receiver operating characteristic curve method (ROC) and the logistic regression method. We propose a four-step method to evaluate the relative predictive accuracy among different link prediction methods. A case study of US aviation networks indicated that the ROC method provided better prediction accuracy compared with the logistic regression method. This result suggests that tuning of the prediction distribution and the regression model coefficients can further improve the accuracy of the logistic regression method.

Source:

Journal: Journal of Data Analysis and Information Processing
DOI: 10.4236/jdaip.2017.52004 (PDF)
Paper Id: 76170 (metadata)

See also: Comments to Paper

About scirp

(SCIRP: http://www.scirp.org) is an academic publisher of open access journals. It also publishes academic books and conference proceedings. SCIRP currently has more than 200 open access journals in the areas of science, technology and medicine. Readers can download papers for free and enjoy reuse rights based on a Creative Commons license. Authors hold copyright with no restrictions. SCIRP calculates different metrics on article and journal level. Citations of published papers are shown based on Google Scholar and CrossRef. Most of our journals have been indexed by several world class databases. All papers are archived by PORTICO to guarantee their availability for centuries to come.
This entry was posted in JDAIP. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *